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Volume XI
John Mitchell:
Hello and welcome once again to the Gameday Tailgater as we get you
prepared for week 4 of the college football season. Welcome my co-hosts
Zach Bigalke and Matt Strobl.
Zach Bigalke:
Oh, man, this season only gets better and better. Even though many of
these players can't legally imbibe, the season sure takes its cues from
the aging of fine wines. Every week we see a new nuance develops an
undertone that will only serve to make the final body of work even more
fun to look back upon and enjoy.
Matt Strobl:
What a crazy weekend. It
looks like 2009 is going to do its best to top last year’s wild ride.
Mitchell:
The top two teams in the land,
Florida
and
Texas
, were both looking for big wins Saturday against teams they wanted to
dominate for different reasons. Both failed to impress. What do you think
of these two teams, and do you think they are the two best in the country?
Bigalke:
Legitimacy is so hard to determine this early in the year. Yes,
Texas
and
Florida
have yet to come into full stride... but that doesn't automatically mean
that they are "down" this year. The Gators, we must realize,
faced a stout MONTE Kiffin-led defense -- the old Buccaneers defensive
coordinator knows how to disrupt offenses, and he has the Super Bowl ring
to prove it (though I bet he flashes it around less than Charlie Weis up
in
South Bend
). Last year we saw them start up slowly and work their way into
championship form. This year appears no different; the talent is still
there in droves for the Gators to win the SEC and possibly get a shot at
their third BCS title in four years. Now
Texas
, on the other hand, is a different story altogether. The Longhorns just
don't seem to have that swagger that they comported themselves with last
year. The Big XII, from week to week, seems more an more in an inchoate
state of flux -- rather than the picture clearing itself, it only becomes
hazier.
Texas
must rediscover who it is... it seems like
Florida
is a lot more legitimate at #1 than
Texas
is at #2.
Strobl:
For the past few weeks, my #1 and #2 teams have been
Florida
and
Alabama
- not
Texas
. I think the Longhorns have
looked sluggish for much of the young season.
They were sloppy against
Wyoming
, and still sloppy against Texas Tech.
Going back even further, they spent the end of last season
complaining about being slighted by the BCS, and then very nearly lost the
Fiesta Bowl to a supposedly far weaker
Ohio
State
team. I currently have them at
#3, which I think is generous given the actual performances in 2009.
As for
Florida
, my reasoning is a little bit different.
This team went undefeated in 2009, won the National Championship,
and has yet to lose this year. While
they have yet to impress me in 2009, I can’t justify dropping them out
of the #1 slot yet. However,
it is my sincere wish that the elite programs in college football would
stop scheduling so many cupcake non-conference games.
I realize that these matchups give smaller schools access to big
money, but there has to be a better way of both sharing the wealth, and
ensuring that we have a slate of respectable games.
In any event,
Florida
’s win over
Tennessee
was perhaps not as pretty as many expected, but it was still a win, and
the margin was double-digits. The
Gators controlled the game throughout, even if the Vols did play them
tough. I’m comfortable
leaving
Florida
at #1 for the time being.
Mitchell:
They certainly didn’t look like it on Saturday.
Florida
showed some glaring weaknesses that could hinder their chances of a repeat
BCS National Championship. They don’t have that Percy Harvin type
player, and they don’t have the receiving they’ve had in the past.
They may have been able to get away with that kind of offensive
performance against
Tennessee
, but I don’t think they will be able to do the same against stiffer
competition. I also don’t like the idea of Tebow running the ball 20+
times a game. As for
Texas
, they looked weak early, but they played pretty well in the 2nd half.
Texas Tech isn’t a terrible team, and they shouldn’t have been
expected to win that game in a blowout. I’m not sure these are the two
best teams though, because
Alabama
is lurking. They have looked extremely impressive so far this season, and
have a strong case for top team in the land.
Another year is underway, and another less than
stellar Pac-10 opponent beating USC. What did you take from the
Washington
win over USC? Was it a fluke, or is
Washington
for real?
Strobl: It
wasn’t a fluke, but I’m not prepared to say that
Washington
has re-established itself. I
think this game was a perfect storm of conditions that made USC ripe for
an upset. You have former
Trojan offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian running the show for the
Huskies. He knows Pete Carroll
very well. You have a USC team
with problems at the QB position and a passing game that has yet to
develop. All of that gets you
exactly what we saw on the field -- a low-scoring, hard fought game in
which
Washington
was able to stay close enough to have a shot at the win.
Make no mistake --
Washington
’s poor year last year didn’t mean the team was bereft of talent.
Jake Locker has been touted as a quality QB for some time, and I
think he’ll get an opportunity to live up to that billing this season.
In all, I think USC is lucky to be 1-1 over its last two games
instead of 0-2. If Terrelle
Pryor had been a little more prepared, USC’s season would be in even
more trouble.
Bigalke:
This was really the ULTIMATE trap game. Going on the road for a conference
opener against a team that poached your offensive and defensive
coordinators as well as many position coaches from the previous season is
never a good start. The moment that defined this as more than just a fluke
to me was when the ABC cameras panned to the
Washington
sideline, where Huskies defensive coordinator was shooting the breeze with
several of his former charges when the Trojans were on defense. It seemed
as though the USC defenders, at that moment, were more interested in a
family reunion than in the football game. I thought
Washington
would be improved this season -- I mentioned in our first edition of Tailgater
that
Washington
's offense would give LSU some fits, and they didn't disappoint. Now we
see the team maturing, Jake Locker rounding back to form after missing
most of last year. The Huskies are a good football team, and could very
easily be bowling at the end of this season if they keep up the hard work.
Mitchell: I
think people are over blowing USC’s loss to
Washington
. Too many people are jumping to conclusions that USC is no longer the top
team in the Pac 10, and their time has passed. How soon everyone forgets
that USC lost at this same time last year on the road to
Oregon
State
. What happened? They still won the Pac 10 title just how they’ve done
the previous eight seasons. Yes, USC lost to a much improved
Washington
team than from a year ago. Also, you have to take into effect that Matt
Barkley did not play in the game, and Aaron Corp looked lost back there. I
think USC will be fine with Barkley back starting at QB. I’m not ready
to label
Washington
a great team or anything, but I do think they have a quality team, and
they have a great shot at getting into a bowl game.
BYU looked to take another step toward the BCS, but
were embarrassed by
Florida
State
in
Provo
on Saturday. What went wrong with the Cougars?
Bigalke:
There were three things that went south for BYU as they took their first
disheartening defeat of the season. First, they allowed five turnovers.
That alone is going to kill a team’s chances at success, especially when
that team can’t get its opponent to cough up the ball at all. Other than
the three interceptions by Max Hall and the two fumbles, this team was
otherwise competent as usual on offense, passing for over 300 yards and
getting 97 yards out of Harvey Unga on just 10 carries. The defense,
though, failed to contain the Seminoles offense. As mentioned, they got no
turnovers of their own to balance the ledger for their teammates. They
allowed over 300 yards on the ground; sophomore RB Ty Jones ran for 108
yards and QB Christian Ponder got another 77 to lead the way. And third,
their quick-strike style of offense allowed
Florida
State
to control the clock to a 2-to-1 advantage, which further contributed to
the defensive demise. If anything, I think we’ve seen Bobby Bowden’s
boys give the rest of BYU’s opponents a blueprint on how the Cougars can
be dismantled on the field.
Strobl:
First, turnovers. You
simply cannot give the ball away and expect to win.
The Cougars lost two fumbles, and Max Hall threw three picks- five
turnovers that led directly to 23 points for
Florida
State
. BYU fumbled deep in FSU
territory at the start of the game. Another
fumble came on a kick return, and set the Seminoles up at the BYU 30.
FSU corner Greg Reid intercepted Hall in the second half and ran it
back for a score. Hall threw
another interception on his own 16 yard line.
Eliminate those mistakes, and instead of 54 points, FSU has 31, and
instead of BYU scoring only 28, maybe they convert a couple of those
drives. Those 5 turnovers
alone could account for the loss. But
to make matters worse, the BYU defense barely showed up.
Christian Ponder was extremely effective, and the
Florida
State
special teams gave him excellent starting field position on several key
drives. I think that overall,
the turnovers put BYU in an immediate hole, and in a state of shock from
which the team couldn’t recover.
Mitchell: I
picked this. I thought
Florida
State
would be pumped up coming into this one looking for something to prove,
but never did I expect them to dominate BYU like they did in
Provo
. Matt is right on, turnovers really hurt the Cougars.
Florida
State
did what good teams do, and they converted off miscues by BYU.
Florida
State
really needed this win coming off a near miss to FCS opponent
Jacksonville
State
just a week prior to this one. They redeemed themselves with a win over a
top 10 team on the road. BYU’s National title hopes, and most likely
their BCS hopes all together went down the drain with that embarrassing
loss to the Seminoles.
There were a few big named players that were lost for
the season this weekend, which loss is the most significant?
Strobl: I
think
Michigan
is going miss David Molk. The
center was the heart of the offensive line, a unit that was already
short-handed after losing guard David Moosman in the win over Notre Dame.
The Wolverines have a young team that is still in the process of
adapting to a new offense. They
have a freshman quarterback who could struggle without adequate pocket
protection. Even running the
spread can’t save you if your o-line doesn’t hold up.
If Michigan can’t find the depth to replace Molk, who will be out
for at least a month and possibly longer, it could find itself suffering
through another tough season despite some early victories.
Bigalke:
We’ll have to wait and see how B.J. Daniels pans out for the Bulls, but
the ACL tear of Matt Grothe makes me grimace as I think of how this very
injury derailed
Oregon
’s season two years ago. Grothe, a four-year starter at
South Florida
, was a consistent option for coach Jim Leavitt. The senior was on pace
for a record year in pretty much every category, looking as though he was
ready to live up to breakout predictions by yours truly before the season
began. Now we’re left to see how good Daniels really is. The freshman
from
Tallahassee
gets a homecoming of sorts as he returns to his hometown to face the
Seminoles of Florida State. He looked good going 10-for-13 with 149 yards
and a touchdown along with eight carries for 105 yards and two more
scores, but that was against an FCS school. His first real test comes this
week; this environment might just rattle the kid, and leave Leavitt and
his staff pining for the steady hand of Grothe.
Mitchell: I
say Matt Grothe. What a sad way to end a career. Coming into his senior
season at
South Florida
, this looked like the season that he could get
South Florida
into the BCS and end his storied career. Instead he suffers a season
ending injury. I picked USF to win the Big East this season with the main
reason being Grothe. Without him, I think their chances are gone now. My
heart goes out to this kid, I can’t imagine what he is feeling right
now.
With a couple potential BCS busters down, we are left
with
Boise
State
, TCU, and
Houston
as the top three BCS crashers. Do you see any other team that could
potentially crash the party?
Bigalke: I
really think that
Colorado
State
, unimpressive as their victories so far have been, is on the cusp of a
breakthrough season this year. And this team’s first big test comes this
weekend when they travel to
Provo
. Last year, in Steve Fairchild’s first year as the head coach, the Rams
came within 22 seconds of toppling BYU. The Rams obviously know they are
capable of big things, but now they must take the big leap to prominence
that can only come from defeating a nationally-recognized name. I have a
sneaking suspicion that the Rams might just pull this thing off in
Utah
tomorrow.
Strobl: How
about Southern Miss? After
toppling ACC doormat
Virginia
, the Golden Eagles are 3-0 and staring down a huge matchup with #20
Kansas
this weekend. For argument’s
sake, let’s say they pull out the tough road win against the Jayhawks.
I think that such a victory would certainly put them on the
national map, and would very likely vault them into the Top 25.
They also have games against the Big East’s
Louisville
, and conference rival Houston. Depending
on how those shake out, Southern Miss has a strong enough schedule to earn
them some significant points at the end of the season.
Of course,
Houston
will be looking to beat the Eagles and maintain its own hopes of BCS-busting,
so a lot will depend on that outcome.
Mitchell: I
honestly don’t see any team other than the remaining three competing for
a BCS bowl. I know Southern Miss and
Colorado
State
are both undefeated right now, but I don’t seem them finishing that way.
Southern Miss still has to play road games against
Kansas
, Louisivlle, and
Houston
. Then
Colorado
State
has road games against BYU and TCU and a home date with
Utah
. I can’t see any of these teams running the table to have the chance at
crashing the BCS party.
What team most disappointed you last week?
Strobl:
There are plenty of choices. USC,
the
Georgia
defense... but I’ll go with Georgia Tech.
Coming into the matchup with
Miami
, I was thinking that Tech could compete for the Coastal division.
Now I know better. The
Jackets’ defense was completely exposed by the ‘Canes passing attack,
and the vaunted triple option was all but shut down by tremendous
defensive speed. Georgia Tech
looked thoroughly outmatched in every aspect of the game.
Bigalke: I
was thoroughly flummoxed with the performance
Nebraska
had against Virginia Tech last week. QB Zac Lee was just 11-of-30 for 136
yards with two picks. RB Roy Helu Jr., their feature back, put up 169
yards on 28 carries... but couldn’t punch the ball in the endzone. When
it mattered most, the Cornhuskers settled for four field goals either
inside of or on the cusp of coming from a snap inside the Virginia Tech
20-yard line to go with K Alex Henery’s 40-yard kick at the end of the
first quarter.
Nebraska
will have to learn to score in big situations if they are to succeed. They
can’t allow 81-yard passes or allow a team to score the go-ahead
touchdown; and because they did do both these things, they could be
nothing if not disappointing right now.
Mitchell:
It’s
West Virginia
for me. Specifically Jarrett Brown’s performance.
West Virginia
should have won the game against
Auburn
, but Jarrett Brown turned the ball over 5 times including three
consecutive interceptions in the 4th quarter. It was just an embarrassing
performance by Brown, and he really cost his team the game. I was very
disappointed in his play, and because of it
Auburn
stole a victory it really didn’t deserve.
Who is your offensive player of the week?
Bigalke:
Boise
State
’s defense stifled an Oregon Ducks rushing attack that was #2 in the
nation last year in the season opener. But they couldn’t contain Ryan
Mathews, the junior running back for the Fresno State Bulldogs who put up
a legendary performance against the Broncos. Carrying the ball 19 times,
Mathews torched the Broncos for 234 yards and three touchdowns. His team
might’ve lost the game this week against a strong
Boise
State
team that is as good on offense as it is on defense... usually. This week,
their run defense looked more foolish than formidable -- and that is
squarely because of the powerful running of the 5’11” Mathews.
Strobl:
I’m going to throw a curve ball here and go with
Minnesota
receiver Eric Decker. I
already mentioned him in this week’s Packing
Up the Grill. Despite
the fact that the Gophers fell to
Cal
, I think Decker deserves the nod here.
He had 8 catches for more than 100 yards, and threw a touchdown
pass on an option play. He was
all over the field, and somehow managed to be consistently open even
though he was clearly
Minnesota
’s best offensive weapon.
Mitchell: I
have to give it Jahvid Best. He rushed for over 130 yards and punched in 5
touchdowns for
California
. He put the Golden Bears on his back and willed his team to victory
against
Minnesota
. Best proved he was the best on Saturday, and really established himself
as a legit Heisman contender.
How about defensive?
Strobl:
I’m going with the
Cincinnati
defensive unit. If you need to
put a single name to it, how about J.K. Schaffer, with 7 solo tackles and
a key interception? But truly,
the win over #24
Oregon
State
in
Corvallis
was a team effort, and worthy of recognition because the Bearcat defense
has been totally rebuilt. It
is now well known that coach Brian Kelley brought in 10 new starters after
the squad lost several key playmakers to the NFL.
I think this win- on the road, out of conference, and against a
ranked team- made a real statement about where UC stands.
The Bearcats allowed only a single touchdown, holding the Beavers
and the explosive Rodgers brothers to 18 points.
Mitchell: I
have to give this to
Washington
linebacker Donald Butler. He was all over the field leading the Huskies to
an upset victory over 3rd ranked USC. He had 12 tackles (2 for loss), he
forced a fumble, and picked off an Aaron Corp pass.
Washington
’s defensive unit looked good all together against the Trojans, but
Butler
stuck out as the prime time performer, and I can’t think of anyone else
to give this to, he is without a doubt the most deserving.
Bigalke: I
was going to go with Donald Butler myself, but let’s keep it in Pac-10
territory for my pick. Spencer Paysinger, who had 10 tackles in the big
victory over BCS Buster Utah and ending their national-high 19-game
winning streak, is my second choice. Paysinger has matured into the role
that he took from Kevin Garrett midway through last season at weakside
linebacker. The junior also defensed two passes and general caused
commotion for Cain.
Mitchell:
Let's move towards week 4. What positional matchup is most intriguing to
you this weekend?
Bigalke:
Even if the
Oregon
offense has looked like a withered husk of its prior self this year, the
defense looks to have grown and improved despite losing several NFL draft
picks this season. But they’re facing their first big conference test
when
Cal
comes to town, and the defense will face perhaps the best of a long list
of elite running backs in this conference. I will be watching to see how
the Ducks do against the Golden Bears’ rushing attack.
Oregon
’s run defense looked strong against the spread-option offense of
Utah
led by QB Terrance Cain. Allowing just 119 yards might be tough against
Heisman hopeful Jahvid Best, but the Ducks defense will have to keep
things tempered if
Oregon
is to succeed at home. I’ll be watching the three new starters on the
defensive line and how they stand up to the test.
Strobl:
I want to see if Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett can come close to
matching what he did to
Georgia
last week. The Hogs may have
lost, but Mallett absolutely torched the Dawg defense.
This week he faces
Alabama
-- by all accounts a far better unit.
And I am eager to find out just how good he actually is.
The former Wolverine is a virtual prototype of the perfect
pocket-passer, and you’d better believe that NFL scouts already have
their eyes on him.
Mitchell:
How about the high powered
Georgia
offense against the statistically best defense in the nation to this point
of the season in
Arizona
State
? The stats are on the Sun Devils side, but they’ve put up the good
numbers against
Idaho
State
and UL Monroe, not exactly top teams. I don’t think
Arizona
State
’s defense is as good as it has been made out to be so far this year,
but I could be wrong. They will face a tough test against
Georgia
, and we will see just how good this defense actually is against a more
than capable offense.
Who are you putting on upset alert this week?
Strobl:
There are a number of critical matchups this week.
Cal
faces
Oregon
in
Eugene
-- a showdown that could ultimately decide the Pac-10 conference.
Penn
State
hosts
Iowa
, and the Hawkeyes are coming off of a big win.
I mentioned
Arkansas
and
Alabama
, plus we have a huge ACC battle between Virginia Tech and
Miami
. But I’m going to follow up
on my BCS Buster thoughts by going with Southern Miss over
Kansas
. The Jayhawks have yet to
play a tough team, and win or lose, they’re going to face a test from
the Eagles. Southern Miss can
elevate its status significantly with a road win.
Bigalke:
I’m going to put both Jim Tressel and Bronco Mendenhall on upset alert
this week. Two coaches who had every logical reason to think that they’d
be undefeated prior to bowl season now face situations where they have
fallen behind in conference races. The letdown of losing out on such a big
goal so early in the year can derail an entire season for a team. And with
Illinois
and
Colorado
State
respectively coming to town, neither coach can allow his team to slip if
they want to try to get back on some semblance of a successful path.
Illinois
knows what it feels like to win in
Columbus
, and
Colorado
State
comes to
Provo
undefeated and with dreams of winning against BYU for the first time since
2003 after coming so close last year.
Mitchell:
Just as
Washington
was on the right end of their upset over USC last week, I think they are
going to be on the wrong end this week. I am putting
Washington
on upset alert this week on the road against Stanford.
Washington
may be a little too high on themselves after the win over USC, and this
could be a trap game for the Huskies here. I think Stanford comes out and
pulls out a home upset over
Washington
this weekend.
What player is the game changer this week?
Bigalke:
Arrelious Benn was knocked unconscious on the drive after he caught his
only pass of the game, a seven-yard first-down conversion to the Ohio
State 7 that led to the go-ahead touchdown. He sat the rest of the game,
unable to pay attention with any coherency. After suffering an ankle
injury in the season opener against
Missouri
, Benn is once again healthy and ready to see what he can do against the
Buckeyes. With
Ohio
State
only barely ranked in the top 50 in passing defense, the conditions are
ripe for Arrelious to finally get his chance to really play against the
Buckeyes at the Horseshoe.
Strobl:
I’m going with Olivier Vernon,
Miami
’s lightning-quick defensive end. He
was tremendous in disrupting Georgia Tech’s running game last week, and
he’ll do his best to make Tyrod Taylor miserable on Saturday.
Taylor
has to be feeling pretty good after taking out
Nebraska
on a last-minute prayer, but he’ll come back to earth when facing the
speed of the
Miami
defense. The ‘Canes have VT,
then
Oklahoma
to complete their opening string of 4 straight ranked opponents.
If they can somehow go 4-0, they’ll be a Top 5 team.
Mitchell: I
think its Javier Arenas the defensive back from
Alabama
. Arenas will be tested a lot on Saturday because
Arkansas
will definitely air it out a lot against
Alabama
with Ryan Mallett. Arenas will be counted on to make big plays in the
secondary. Then, he will also be returning kicks and punts for the Tide
against the Razorbacks. He is one of the most dangerous return men in the
country, and strikes fear into the opposing coach every time he gets his
hands on the ball. Arenas will play an important role for
Alabama
this Saturday. I could probably say the entire secondary will be counted
on to be game changers against
Arkansas
.
Let's move on to our thoughts and predictions for
week four. We'll start with a big ACC Coastal showdown in
Atlanta
. Georgia Tech is coming off a loss to
Miami
, and can ill afford a loss here to
North Carolina
. The Tar Heels are trying to make a statement as they try to position
themselves as a serious threat in the conference. What do you think of
this matchup?
Strobl:
I’d like to support my local team and stick with UNC.
The ‘Heels showed flashes of brilliance against
East Carolina
, and I do think that QB T.J. Yates is developing into a solid leader.
But I don’t foresee the
Carolina
defense being able to contain the Georgia Tech running game like
Miami
did. And in the end, it will
undo them.
Pick:
Georgia Tech
Bigalke:
Honestly, it feels to me like teams have dusted off their old defensive
playbooks from the mid-eighties and earlier and are reacquainting
themselves with how to take on this type of offense. Paul Johnson’s
scheme isn’t exactly a brand-new phenomenon; it’s just the fact that
he is using it when it is out of vogue and few scout teams can run it
effectively enough for opposing defenses to adequately prepare before
Saturdays. I think Butch Davis is a smart enough coach to have these Tar
Heels ready for the game. As high as I was on Georgia Tech at the
beginning of the season, it seems as though time and video study has let
defenses sneak back up on them.
Pick:
North Carolina
Mitchell: I
think Georgia Tech will be very motivated coming into this game against
North Carolina
following the loss last Thursday night to
Miami
. Georgia Tech still has ACC title aspirations, and they can’t afford to
lose here and fall to 1-2 in conference play. I haven’t been that
impressed with
North Carolina
so far this season, and I don’t see their defense being up to the task
to stop the option attack of Georgia Tech.
Pick:
Georgia Tech
TCU faces their biggest out of conference challenge
on the road against Clemson. Can the Horned Frogs win this and continue
towards BCS busting?
Bigalke:
I’ve said long and loud that I’m still not impressed with the ACC.
Clemson has a 2-1 record only because it beat middling squads from
Middle
Tennessee
State
and
Boston
College
. They snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against Georgia Tech, who
has proven to be a disappointment themselves. TCU hasn’t played much
yet, but their defense is as formidable as ever, QB Andy Dalton and the
rest of the offense have performed admirably both at
Virginia
and against
Texas
State
. This is going to be another ACC scalp for the Horned Frogs to take back
to
Fort Worth
.
Pick: TCU
Strobl: I
think they can. Clemson looked
good against BC in last week’s monsoon, but the TCU defense will be
better than any they’ve faced so far.
I expect them to struggle, and if they can’t move the ball and
keep that offense on the field, TCU is going to have plenty of scoring
chances. I expect it to be a
better game than the Frogs got from
Virginia
, but in the end another ACC team will fall to a non-conference opponent.
Pick: TCU
Mitchell:
This is going to be a very challenging game for TCU. Make no mistake,
Clemson has a decent team, and this is a road game against an ACC opponent
for Gary Patterson’s bunch. I think Dabo Swinney and Clemson will give
TCU everything they can handle led by the running of CJ Spiller. I think
in the end TCU’s defense is just too much for Clemson, and will make
enough plays in the end to hang on to a win over Clemson.
Pick: TCU
Alabama
opens up SEC play against the high powered offensive attack of
Arkansas
, can
Alabama
's defense slow down that offense, and cruise to victory?
Strobl:
Alabama
is a complete team. I think
that if there are any questions for the Tide, they reside at the QB
position, but
Arkansas
’ defense is not the unit to expose any problems that
Alabama
might have. Last week
Georgia
hung 52 points on the Razorbacks, and ‘Bama is quite a bit better than
the ‘Dawgs. I don’t expect
this matchup to be as high scoring as the Arkansas-Georgia shootout, but I
do expect the Tide to maintain an unblemished record.
Pick:
Alabama
Bigalke:
This is not going to be a trap game for
Alabama
as
South Carolina
was for Ole Miss on Thursday night. The Tide is simply the better-coached,
better-staffed, better-performing team in this contest. Especially after
the Rebels lost ground in the SEC West race by dropping a conference game
to Spurrier and crew, Nick Saban will have all of his guys fired up to go
out there and take the game to the Razorbacks. QB Greg McElroy isn’t
nearly as bad as everyone has suggested. His job is to manage the game,
not to make dazzling plays to win it. The key in this game is sophomore RB
Mark Ingram. Since he will be seeing a full load of carries, he’ll
likely go over a hundred yards yet again this week as
Alabama
takes charge of its divisional destiny.
Pick:
Alabama
Mitchell:
Alabama
has showed a great balance on offense so far this season, and the defense
is right on course this season, and I think they are the best in the
entire nation. The defense will face their biggest challenge this
Saturday. The Tide defense hasn’t faced a QB like Ryan Mallett this
year. The secondary will be put to the test against the Razorbacks. I just
don’t see
Arkansas
’ defense being good enough to stop
Alabama
’s offense, and I think
Alabama
’s front seven will put enough pressure on Mallett most likely with the
4 man rush and dropping 8 back for pass defense. I think
Alabama
’s defense will get in Mallett’s face and make him uncomfortable.
Arkansas
’ offense will not be able to put up the video game type numbers against
this
Alabama
defense, and I think the Tide rolls on to 4-0.
Pick:
Alabama
Autzen Stadium is sure to be rocking as
Oregon
hosts one of their biggest challenges in the Pac 10. Can
Oregon
take a step toward the Pac 10-crown with an upset over
Cal
?
Bigalke:
Two years ago,
Oregon
was a Cameron Colvin fumble on the cusp of the go-ahead touchdown from
defeating the Bears when they last visited Autzen. I remember that day
vividly, as my parents were in town and could barely understand why
everyone was so dour when they came to a dinner party after attending the
game. The personnel for both teams is almost completely turned over from
that contest between teams that would both eventually reach a #2 ranking
before taking a plunge down the polls.
Cal
certainly has the swagger, but the one X-factor is how QB Kevin Riley
deals with the Autzen Zoo on his first time playing in
Eugene
.
Oregon
looks to slowly be discovering its offense, with LaMichael James and
Kenjon Barner emerging as the next stout Duck rushing tandem. Jeremiah
Masoli is a better quarterback than he has exhibited in the opening of the
season, and
Oregon
will send
Cal
away after this game just as they did
Utah
last weekend.
Pick:
Oregon
Strobl:
Every year
Cal
is highly touted, yet every year the team finds a way to disappoint.
I’m hopeful that this season will be different, for coach Jeff
Tedford’s sake. He needs to
see a season through to the end, and 2009 could be his best chance.
He has one of the top tailbacks in the nation, and Jahvid Best is
coming off of a 5 touchdown performance on the road versus
Minnesota
. If he can gash the Duck
defense like that, it’s going to be a long day for the home crowd.
In fairness to
Oregon
, I bet against them last week, and they responded by taking care of
Utah
. So they certainly have it in
them to come up with a big win. However,
I do think
Cal
is a more complete team than
Utah
. The Bears’ defense needs
to play a lot better than it did against the Gophers, and regardless of
how they improve I expect a
high point
total in this matchup. In the
end, this could go either way. But
I’ll stick with the Fighting Tedfords.
Pick:
California
Mitchell:
Oregon
’s offense has looked anemic so far this season, and they are going to
have to put it together this week against
California
if they expect to pull out an important Pac 10 game. They won’t beat
Cal
with the type of offensive performance they’ve had so far this season.
Cal
hasn’t impressed me that much either. They struggled last week against
Minnesota
, and had to rely on Jahvid Best’s five-touchdown day. Best is one of
the best running backs in the nation, but can they really count on him to
do that every week? The winner of this game will have the inside track on
the Pac 10 title, and I think
Oregon
’s offense wakes up this week and Jeremiah Masoli leads the Ducks to big
victory.
Pick:
Oregon
BYU's BCS dreams were dashed last week against
Florida
State
, but
Colorado
State
's dream is still alive at the moment. Can
Colorado
State
make a statement by knocking off BYU?
Strobl:
I’m impressed that the Rams have gotten to 3-0, but it hasn’t
been pretty or convincing. This
isn’t a good team, and BYU shouldn’t have any trouble bouncing back
from the loss to FSU. Cougars
coach Bronco Mendenhall will be hoarse from preaching about ball security
all week long.
Pick: BYU
Bigalke:
This game will be played in
Provo
... will it have a funereal atmosphere after that blowout loss to the
Seminoles, or will the Cougars faithful be fired up to get their team back
on track? The letdown in watching their BCS dreams take a serious hit
could still be on their minds, and Bronco Mendenhall’s staff will have
to make sure to prevent such thoughts from creeping into their heads come
kickoff. This is the kind of game that could define Steve Fairchild’s
career. The only problem is that BYU has a much more talented team, and
should be able to get it done against a tenacious Rams team. But
Colorado
State
has the muscle memory of nearly beating the Cougars last season, losing
45-42 on a touchdown pass from Max Hall to Dennis Pitta with 22 seconds
remaining after the Rams had scored to go ahead inside two minutes. This
really is a toss-up, so I might as well root for
Colorado
State
to go undefeated so that
Wyoming
has a chance to spoil things in the Border War... but the home team is
likelier to prevail this time around. But pretty much every pundit (except
John) said the same thing about
Florida
State
last week, and now the Cougars are 0-1 at home. Perhaps BYU’s magic left
once they came back to the comfy confines of LaVell Edwards Stadium;
perhaps they are simply intimidated by all the projections that had them
living up to the expectations that they could duplicate his national
championship. Either way, I have a good feeling about this Rams team this
week. (Full disclosure: As a Cowboys fan, my stomach turns as I type this
critique of the Rams...)
Pick:
Colorado
State
Mitchell:
Colorado
State
is off to a great start this year at 3-0, but are they as good as
advertised? They beat a
Colorado
team who has looked awful this season, then they beat
Weber
State
and a decent team in
Nevada
.
Colorado
State
is on the way up led by Steve Fairchild, but I don’t think this is the
season they make a serious run for the Mountain West title. They are
catching BYU on a bad week as well as they will be looking to make amends
for last season’s loss to
Florida
State
. I think BYU wins by two touchdowns.
Pick: BYU
Houston
looks to continue toward their own BCS hopes as they host their toughest
challenge remaining on the schedule. Can
Houston
continue towards the BCS with another big win over a Big XII opponent?
Bigalke:
There’s no doubt that Mike Leach will have the Red Raiders ready for the
challenge of playing a team that might be in a lesser conference but is
undoubtedly of a BCS caliber. But while, at this point, Graham Harrell and
Michael Crabtree probably miss Texas Tech more than their alma mater
misses them, the Cougars are going to pose a stiff test for their Big XII
visitors.
Houston
might not have the stoutest defense out there, but their
bend-but-don’t-break attitude gets it done enough for their prolific
offense. Case Keenum is a legitimate Heisman contender at quarterback. A
lot is made of how BYU squandered their chance to repeat what their 1984
squad accomplished in winning the national championship, but Keenum’s
story is no less gripping. Should he remain hot and guide
Houston
to a BCS berth, he could win the stiffarm trophy twenty years after
Houston
’s first Heisman winner, Andre Ware.
Pick:
Houston
Strobl:
Houston and Texas Tech are similar teams.
Both have potent offenses and questionable defenses.
I would love to see the Cougars knock off another Big 12 South foe
and stay on course to bust the BCS. If
nothing else, it would set up a great head-to-head with Southern Miss if
the Eagles can live up to my upset pick.
However, betting against Mike Leach is dangerous, and Taylor Potts
is a worthy counterpart to Case Keenum.
I can honestly say I don’t know which way to go in this one.
But perhaps I should stick with the Cougars, who justified my faith
with their big win in
Stillwater
.
Pick:
Houston
Mitchell:
This should be a very exciting game. I don’t see either of these
defenses being able to stop the opposing offense, and this may come down
to whoever has the ball last in this game. Personally, I think this is the
week that
Houston
’s BCS hopes are dashed at home. I think Texas Tech’s offense will
outscore
Houston
’s offense, and end the Cougars BCS dream.
Pick:
Texas
Tech
Georgia
's offense has been rolling as of late, but they take on a good challenge
against an
Arizona
State
defense that is statistically one of the best in the country, although
they haven't faced stiff competition. What unit comes out on top? Is it
the
Georgia
offense or the
Arizona
State
defense?
Strobl: I
don’t know anything about the Sun Devils yet.
Wins over
Idaho
State
and Louisiana-Monroe might as well be wins against one’s own practice
squad. Is this really a great
offense? We’ll find out when
they face an SEC opponent. Of
course, the Dawgs’ defense is lousy this year, so maybe it’s not as
tough a test as I think. The
other matchup is what interests me more, watching Joe Cox and the
Georgia
offense go up against
Arizona
State
’s D. Because it appears
that
Georgia
is starting to come together offensively.
Arkansas
couldn’t stop them, and I’m not sure the Devils will either.
Pick:
Georgia
Bigalke: I
know a little something about the Sun Devils. They’re a team that
returned fourteen starters from a 5-7 team, eight on offense and six on
defense. They played two cupcake games to get to 2-0 this year and have
yet to leave the friendly confines of
Tempe
. Now that they have to travel to
Georgia
, we’re going to see their defense -- which is currently ranked #1
amongst FBS teams but is likely closer to its #45 ranking of last season
-- get really tested. The offense, which sizzled in wins over FCS and Sun
Belt opponents, will fizzle against the Bulldogs... even in an off year
for Mark Richt’s defense.
Pick:
Georgia
Mitchell:
I’m not impressed with either of these teams yet. Although, Georgia’s
win over South Carolina looks more legit after South Carolina’s upset
over Ole Miss. Georgia’s defense hasn’t seemed to show up yet this
season, but I’m not sure they will be needed this week.
Arizona
State
has the top statistical defense in the land this year, but like I said
earlier, they have not faced stiff competition and they will be seriously
challenged against
Georgia
this week. I think
Georgia
wins, and wins big.
Pick:
Georgia
Ohio
State
opens up conference play against
Illinois
this weekend.
Illinois
disappointed early against
Missouri
, is there any chance
Illinois
makes up for that loss with a huge win in
Columbus
?
Bigalke:
It's not infeasible. Two years ago Juice Williams first made a name for
himself when he led the Illini to a big win in the Horseshoe. They
suffered a season-opening loss to
Missouri
that year as well, if I'm not mistaken, and yet were able to recover. Of
course, they had until mid-November in 2007 to recover from two more
losses in conference to
Iowa
and
Michigan
and pull off the rare defeat of the Buckeyes to earn a Rose Bowl drubbing
from USC. The key here, as far as I can tell, is that Arrelious Benn
should be healthy once again after straining his ankle against Missouri
and motivated after getting just one catch against Ohio State two years
ago before sustaining a concussion and sitting out the rest of the
victory.
Ohio
State
has certainly looked vulnerable. And as great as Aaron Opelt has been, I
think that his stats were bloated earlier this year by big wins over
woeful Purdue and Colorado -- the fact that the Buckeyes shut him down
doesn't necessarily impress me given that he is was a career 57.9% passer
who had 30 touchdowns to 19 interceptions and averaged just 5.91 yards per
attempt coming into this season. I'm going to pull the trigger on this
one, opening up the Big Ten race for
Penn
State
to take destiny in its own hands.
Pick:
Illinois
Strobl:
Man, I hope not. The Buckeye
defense has been the team’s saving grace thus far, holding USC to
(basically) 11 points and shutting out an explosive
Toledo
team. The unit has
clearly stepped up after the scare versus Navy.
Unfortunately, Terrelle Pryor and the offense still have a lot to
prove. There’s no doubt in
my mind that OSU is by far the better team in this matchup, with more
talent on both sides of the ball. But
to win the Big Ten this season, the Bucks are going to have to loosen
things up a bit. Coach Jim
Tressel needs to abandon his deathgrip on conservative play-calling and
allow Pryor to grow into his role. If
he can do that, then OSU will take care of the Illini.
If not, they’ll need another stout defensive effort to fend off
the combo of Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn.
Though the
Missouri
game showed that they are the not the duo I thought they were, they are
dangerous nonetheless.
Pick:
Ohio
State
Mitchell:
Illinois
is one of my biggest disappointments this season. I really thought with
Juice Williams returning and with the high powered offense they seemed to
have coming in, I thought
Illinois
could possibly come in and contend with
Ohio
State
and
Penn
State
for the Big Ten title. Boy was I wrong. They looked terrible against
Missouri
, but came back strong against
Illinois
State
. We’ll see this week if
Illinois
can get back on track, but I just don’t see their offense getting it
together against the
Ohio
State
defense.
Illinois
should keep this game close, but I think
Ohio
State
pulls away in the end.\
Pick:
Ohio
State
Miami
jumped into the top 10 following the win over Georgia Tech last Thursday
Night, now they enter the 3rd game of the 4 game gauntlet. They face
Virginia Tech in a huge Coastal Division showdown in
Blacksburg
, can the Canes get to 3-0?
Strobl:
In a fair world, Virginia Tech would be 1-2.
They were controlled by
Nebraska
, and only a pair of very lucky passes at the end of the contest saved
them from a crushing defeat. If
they think the Cornhusker defense was tough, just wait until they meet
Miami
. I admit that I was not a
believer in Randy Shannon’s defense when the season started, but I have
been converted. The ‘Canes
mauled the Georgia Tech offense, which has shown a lot more ability than
the Hokies’ unit. I think
Tyrod Taylor is going to be running for his life while Jacory Harris shows
him how things are supposed to be done.
Pick:
Miami
Bigalke:
Matt is absolutely right. The Hokies are looking sad right now, with the
77th-ranked offense and 78th-ranked defense in the nation. They look like
a sub-.500 team rather than a ranked ACC contender. They're allowing
almost 20 points a game where they allowed 17 last season. Coupled with an
offense that is barely beyond anemic and whose numbers only look as good
as they do because of a 52-10 drubbing of
Marshall
between a loss to
Alabama
and a near-loss to
Nebraska
.
Miami
, meanwhile, is the flavor of the month after defeating ACC favorites
Florida
State
and Georgia Tech ten days apart. Now they have nine days to prepare for a
Virginia Tech team that looks shaky at best? Lane Stadium might be
rocking, but the Hurricanes will be celebrating.
Pick:
Miami
Mitchell:
I’m excited to see this game. Virginia Tech probably should have lost
last week against
Nebraska
, but instead they pulled out a win and are sitting at 2-1 instead of 1-2.
I’m not sure Virginia Tech’s offense has enough to beat
Miami
. Georgia Tech’s offense couldn’t get anything going against the
speedy Miami defense last week, and I’m not sold that Virginia Tech will
have any more success than Georgia Tech did. Frank Beamer will have to
hope his defense can slow Jacory Harris and the
Miami
offense down, because if he can’t, this could be a long day in
Blacksburg
for the Hokies. I expect Virginia Tech to keep this close, but I believe
that
Miami
will wind up 3-0 with 3 huge victories to start this season. How many
people picked
Miami
to even win 2 of their first 4 games? Now, they are starting there 3rd
right in the face with one more game left in the gauntlet .
Pick:
Miami
Iowa
is looking to prove they are a contender for the Big 10 against a
Penn
State
team they beat last year in
Iowa
. Can
Iowa
continue the trend of success against the Nitany Lions and upset them in
Happy
Valley
?
Bigalke:
Freshman Adam Robinson really impressed me last week, getting his first
100-yard rushing day last week at home against
Arizona
. His continued improvement will be essential as the Hawkeyes travel to
Penn
State
this year after last year's upset. I fear, though, that Ricky Stanzi still
isn't up to the challenge of leading this team to prominence. Sure, he
completed 20-of-32 last week for 205 yards... but the inability to punch
the ball into the endzone, the thirty yards lost on the ground and his
interception tell me more than his 62.5% completion rate.
Penn
State
has a much better defense than the Wildcats (or Cyclones or Panthers, for
that matter) and should wreak enough havoc on the passing game that
Robinson will never be able to find creases in the run defense.
Penn
State
should survive this contest at home, but
Iowa
's defense will keep it close.
Pick:
Penn
State
Strobl:
Once again, I have to concede that I was wrong last week.
As with
Oregon
, I went against the Hawkeyes at home, expecting
Arizona
to grab a solid road victory. Instead,
Iowa
showed up and played a pretty complete game.
Even so,
Penn
State
has more talent. Darryll Clark
is having another strong season, and the team hasn’t shown any obvious
weaknesses thus far. Still,
Iowa
will be the Lions’ toughest opponent to date, and
Penn
State
could be without middle linebacker Sean Lee after he suffered a sprained
knee. I think this will be a
close game, but a good effort from
Iowa
won’t be quite enough in
State College
.
Pick:
Penn
State
Mitchell:
Iowa
impressed me last week against
Arizona
, but I don’t have a good read on
Penn
State
yet. This will be the first week they have been challenged, and it will be
interesting to see how they respond to their first test of the season. You
better believe
Penn
State
has the loss to
Iowa
fresh on their minds as they remember that
Iowa
cost them a shot at the National title. The one point loss to the Hawkeyes
was the only loss for
Penn
State
during the 2008 regular season. I think this will be a great game, but I
think
Penn
State
prevails in
Happy
Valley
.
Pick:
Penn
State
Thanks for joining us in yet another edition of the
Gameday tailgater, and I hope you enjoyed this edition to get you ready
for week four. I hope you enjoy this weekend's games.
Submitted 9/25/09
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