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 UFC 102

Lightweight bout:

Marcus Aurelio vs.  Evan Dunham

 

David: Aurelio (18-7 overall,2-3 UFC) is on his second tour of he UFC and is about 2 weeks past his 36th Birthday- sharing a day with my Number 1 son. So either way- I'm pulling for him. That said. Dunham (8-0,1-0) is jumping his difficulty level WAY up here, so this could be looking to keep his spot. Marcus has a STRONG Ju-Ju game- 11 wins by submission and he also has never been stopped, much more impressive until you look at the 7 losses. he does have a win over Takanori Gomi - non title - but a win so he has some skills in BUSHIDO. Dun-ham (Dot Com) has a pretty good all-around game, the question is will Aurelio show him something he has never seen before and make him tap? A win for Dunham could move him into the middle of the UFC Lightweight pack and send Aurelio back to DREAM or Strikeforce for a long time.

Joao: Dunham, 8-0 and training at XTreme Couture, was initially slated to face Matt Veach. As Veach went down with an injury, the UFC rang Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio and asked him back. Unfortunately for Dunham he is now facing a world class BJJ black belt. At 36, Aurelio cardio and best days are clearly behind him, and he won't be around for long, but he's still good enough to submit Dunham.  

Jason: While Dunham may list BJJ on his resume his BJJ is nowhere near the level of Marcus'.  If he has any hope to win this fight it is by keeping it standing. I think if this fight goes to the ground, then Marcus will catch a submission at some point, because he is that good on the ground.    I think Evan is outclassed in this match and Marcus' experience has everything to do with him catching Evan in a submission

WINNER:
David- Dunham KO Round 2
Joao - Aur?o by submission, round 1.
Jason - Aurelio - Submission- Triangle Choke - R2

 

 

Middleweight bout:

Nick Catone vs.  Mark Munoz

 

Cantone (7-1,1-1) is a Purple belt in BJJ and Munoz (5-1,0-1) is a decorated wrestler, almost making this a preview of the main event, Munoz got outwrestled by Hammil in his debut, then gave him a knockout of the night bonus- but did well in the WEC, I think he has a pretty good advantage here as Cantone did get caught in a submission.

 

Joao: Catone has a wrestling background and a purple belt in BJJ; he is 7-1, coming off a loss to Tim Credeur. Munoz also has a wrestling background and is himself also coming off a loss, against Matt Hamill.

 

Jason: I think MW is a good weight for Munoz and I think he will come into this fight looking to redeem himself from his first loss, a KO none the less.  I think this fight could be a long drawn out fight on the ground.  I think both of these guys will fall back to their wrestling and it will come down to who the better wrestler is.  The weight cut could come into play in the 3rd round for Munoz, but I think he does enough to get the decision.

 

WINNER: 
David: Munoz Sub R2
Joao: Nick Catone by decision
Jason: Munoz - UD

 

 

 

Heavyweight bout:

Tim Hague vs.  Todd Duffee

 

David: Hague (10-1,1-0) has some good striking but not really dangerous- think Jardineish power while Duffee (4-0,Debut) has KOed all 4 of his opponents and has yet to see the second minute of round 2. His longest fight was against Assuerio Silva, who he knocked out at 1:17 of round 1. Hague is a little bigger- but I think Duffee has the power to end this early.

 

Joao: Hague is 10-1 and made a successful UFC debut by submitting Pat Barry; he has a blue (not black, blue) belt in BJJ. On the other hand, Duffee is only 23 and is 4-0; his biggest win came on his last fight, at Jungle Fight, in Brazil , when he TKOed Assu?o Silva. That was almost a year ago but he now trains with the American Top Team. I liked his performance against Assu?o Silva and I am expecting improvement from him, with his ATT training.

 

Jason: A battle of the big boys.  Tim has some heavy hand and is definitely dangerous standing.  Todd hasn't been in the ring very long in any of his fights ending them all in the first or second round. I think Duffee is going to be the quicker fighter and will land the first shot, and with guys this size it usually only takes one.  I think these two come out swinging and the first one that lands a clean shot wins the fight.  I believe Duffee will be that guy and pull put Hague down, then pounce on him for the finish.

 

Winner:
David: Duffee KO R2
Joao: Duffee by submission, round 2
Jason: Duffee - TKO R1

Heavyweight bout: 
Justin McCully vs.  Mike Russow

 

David: Justin (9-4,2-1) is finishing out his contract, and I have to think is a lamb to build up Russow, McCully is a decent fighter- but I simply think Russow (11-1,is too strong on the ground and even though Russow blew his chance at the big time in Pride- he won't make the same mistake again

Joao: what happens when two guys who do not belong in the UFC actually fight? Well, the winner should bow out. That having been said, McCully has been fighting better opposition and I see him winning an uninteresting fight, even if the action inside the octagon is good.  

Jason: For a wrestler Russow really seems to like submissions, particularly chokes.  McCully is going to be outweighed by at least 20 pounds in this fight as well.  While Russow's has a nice record he really hasn't been tested yet.  I don't really think McCully will test him either.  I think Russow gets the fight down and gets a choke on McCully.

 

WINNER:
David: Russo R3 Choke
Joao: Justin McCully by decision
Jason: Russow - R2 Choke

 

Heavyweight bout: 
Gabriel Gonzaga vs.  Chris Tuchscherer

 

David: Long fall from Napo (10-4,6-3), since the Cro-COp win, but he is a solid gatekeeper for the heavyweight division and even though Chris (17-1,Debut) sports an impressive win total- I don;t think Napo goes home if he loses this fight. Chris is a well balenced fighter who is stepping up to the big stage, and if he has the standup he could find himself on PPV very quickly, Chris is kind of interesting, in that he tried out for TUF 10, but instead of going to the house got a shot at the show.

 

Joao: Napão” high-kicked Cro Cop and got a title shot; everything was going his way. Two years later and he’s back to undercard status. Tuchscherer trains with Brock Lesnar and Sean Sherk and has good wrestling skills; he is riding a 17-1 record but hasn’t fought in any big show. Gonzaga has the BJJ pedigree and the leg kicks to chop Tuchscherer down.

 

Jason: Can anyone really predict how a Gabriel Gonzaga fight will turn out?  Tushscherer seems to be just the kind of fighter that gives Gabriel trouble.  A guy with power and a good ground game.  The fact the Chris was fast tracked into the UFC and not made to go through the TUF house shows that the UFC thinks he already belongs and they are certainly giving him a decent test against Gabriel.  Will Chris have the first time UFC jitters or has he been in enough fights not to let it bother him?  I think Chris tries to keep this fight standing and see if he can KO him ala Carwin.  While Gabriel has shown he can KO people he has also been exposed to having a weak chi getting KO'd by a short right hand by Carwin.  I think Chriss catches Gabriel early in the first round.

 

WINNER
David: Gonzaga Des
Joao: Gabriel Gonzaga by submission, round 2
Jason: Tuchscherer - KO R1  

Middleweight bout: 
Ed Herman vs.  Aaron Simpson

 

David: I do like Herman (15-7,4-4) but he seems to prove that Ken Shamrock is not the worst coach he was portrayed to be on the show, as Ed has not gotten any better since leaving the show. Ed is solid at a lot of things but scary in none of them, this should be the last fight on his TUF deal and even a win might not bring him back. Aaron (5-0,1-0) is seven years older than Herman and has only been fighting for 2 years- leaving to a HUGE experience edge for Ed. Simpson can stand with him , but Ed is simply too experienced to get caught. 

 

Joao: A Team Quest fighter, Ed Herman is still a young fighter who has shown promise, but that has also shown tremendous flaws, namely his submission defense. Aaron Simpson is 5-0, 35-years-old, but I am not impressed by what I have seen from him, as he moved from the WEC to the UFC. I see Herman out-wrestling Simpson and getting the win, building on his previous win over David Loiseau.

 

Jason: For some reason I just really like Herman.  He seems like a good guy, but I think he is in for a long night during UFC 102.  Ed is a decent wrestler, a pretty good striker and has some submissions in his bag of tricks.  Simpson is an extremely good wrestler.  He isn't going to try to stand and trade punches with Ed.  He's gong to slam Ed to the ground and stay on top of him reigning down blows until the ref stops the fight or Ed is KO'd.

 

Winner:
David: Herman by Des
Joao: Ed Herman by decision
Jason: Simpson - R2 TKO

 

Light Heavyweight bout: 
Brandon Vera vs.  Krzysztof Soszynski

 

David: I'm not a Vera (10-3,6-3) fan, Sorry I'm not- there is something there I just don't like. But I do like Sos, so I will have a rooting intrest in this fight. problem is on Paper Vera wins this fight in a walk, but on Paper Vera should be 12-1 at worst. Sos (18-8,3-0) could be the next Jardine- we don't really know how good he is. He does not seem to be a threat on the ground until he is breaking your arm and he is not really that good a striker until he catches you flush. Vera is simply too good to lose here . .. .but he will.

 

Joao: - Vera is a former UFC poster boy, a former fast rising star. After back to back losses at Heavyweight he decided to drop down to Light Heavyweight; he was expected to dominate but, instead, the results have been mixed. He has a well-rounded game but his bread and butter is his Muay Thai. Krzysztof Soszynski  (I hate writing his name) is an IFL and Ultimate Fighter veteran who trains at Team Quest, having decent BJJ and wrestling. He should try to take it to the ground and work Vera over. Unfortunately for him I just don’t see it happening.

 

Jason: Whenever I think of Vera I think of his bold prediction of holding the Lt HW and HW belts at the same time.  How's that been working out for you Vera?  He seems to have the skills to win standing or on the ground.  He came into the UFC on a tear, but has been up and down since his first 4 wins.  If he comes out aggressive I think he has a good chance of winning this fight.  I would definitely give him the advantage on their feet.  On the other side of things I think KS(His name is too long to spell each time) can also win standing or on the ground, but I think he will take the fight to the ground and try to win it there.  Vera has a reach advantage on standing and his kicks and knees are no joke.  This is a tough call, because I think Vera is hungry in this fight.  I say Vera keeps the fight standing and puts KS away with knees.

 

Winner
David: Kos KO Round 1
Joao: Brandon Vera by decision
Jason: Vera R2 - KO Knees

Middleweight bout: 
Nate Marquardt vs.  Demian Maia

 

David: Nate the Great (28-8,7-2) is rebuilding for a title shot and Maia (10-0,5-0) keeps picking off conenders waiting on his title shot. Maia does have a question on his game, his gas tank, but once on the ground thats normally going to give Maia a Submission of the night bonus- he has won 4 of the 5 awarded in his UFC career. Maia cannot be touched on the ground- almost like a certain Main Eventer in tonight's card. Nate's ONLY chance is to keep it on the feet and hope he catches Maia for the first time ever. I said 3 fights ago Maia is the next MW champion- and This is simply another step in that direction.

 

Joao: Arguably the most important and interesting fight on the card, as the winner is the clear #1 Middleweight contender to have a crack at the title once Dan Henderson has had his turn. Nate “The Great” brings a ton of experience (38 fights, most of them in Pancrase and in the UFC) to the octagon and he also brings a well-rounded game, with his wrestling, striking and BJJ. He is also a powerful, strong, fighter; just look at how he piledrived (no kidding) Thales Leites at UFC 85, right at the end of a grueling 3 round fight. That’s some serious power right there. As for Maia, he is one of the best BJJ practitioners in the world; in fact, his grappling accomplishments have even been better without a GI, than with one. He is 10-0 overall and has finished all of his 5 UFC opponents by submission.  Maia is an incredible ground fighter, BJJ wizard, but has some limitations: his cardio isn’t top notch, his striking isn’t either (he has been working on that part of the game, though), and he is more suited to fight at 170. I am rooting for Maia but I cannot see a scenario in which he wins this fight; Marquardt doesn’t have the BJJ of Maia (he would get submitted in a BJJ or submission match) but he is a black belt himself, a strong guy who won’t be easily submitted (in fact, he submitted Jeremy Horn and avoided Dean Lister’s ground game for 3 rounds). Nate’s striking is better than Maia’s and he also has a takedown defense; this is an important point as Maia’s takedowns aren’t exactly impressive, and he usually decides to pull guard whenever he can’t get the takedown. With Marquardt that’s not the best option, as Nate will start to ground ‘n pound him.

 

Jason: This is the fight I really can't wait to see.  There's no secret where Maia wants this fight.  He is a BJJ guy through and through winning all of his UFC fights with chokes.  While Nate is also very dangerous on the ground I don't think many would argue in giving Maia the advantage if the fight goes to the ground.  The big question is how will it get there?  Nate has the advantage on the feet and I believe he plans on keeping the fight there to use his superior striking skills to put Maia away.  I won't be shocked to see Maia pull off a submission, but I'm going with Nate via a KO.

WINNER:

David: Maia Sub R2
Joao: Nate Marquardt by (T)KO, round 2
Jason: Nate - KO R2

 

Middleweight bout: 
Chris Leben vs.  Jake Rosholt

 

David: Leben-Love! Sorry I had to get that Leben (18-5,8-4)   has a Rock Solid Chin, and is an underrated wrestler who has a lot of fans, And Hi, My name is David, and I’m a huge fan. Jake (5-1,0-1) is a VERY good wrestler and will take Leben down at will. The question is, can Chris keep it on his feet long enough to KO him or can Jake get an arm long enough to make Leben tap? I’ll take the guy that has done nothing but think about this fight for 9 months.

 

Joao: Leben is coming off a 9-month steroids suspension, after his decision loss to Michael Bisping at UFC 89. He needs to beat Rosholt in impressive fashion, in order to show the UFC brass that he still belongs. Rosholt is 5-1 overall but 0-1 in the UFC, now trying to make a better showing in his second UFC fight; he has a wrestling background and, against Leben, will eventually look to get the fight on the ground. While Leben isn’t exactly a great striker, he is good enough – and powerful enough – to KO subpar strikers; on top of that, he has a great chin.

 

Jason: I don't think there are any secrets in this fight.  I think Jake wants to take Leben down and pound him out.  While Leben on the other hand will most likely try to keep the fight on their feet and use his superior striking to KO Jake.  Leben is a quality wrestler and if he can stiffle Jake's takedowns he wil probably win the fight with a KO.  If he can't defend the takedown he may be in for a long night of eating punches from his back.  I think Rosholt does enough to get the win by controlling the fight on the ground.

 

WINNER:

David: LEBEN! Ko 2
Joao: Chris Leben by (T)KO, round 2
Jason: Roshold - Split decision.

 

Light Heavyweight bout:  
Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva

 

David: I’m a Jardine Fan, and I think Thiago is pretty good- neither are threats in the Light Heavy ranks but one of these guys has to lose to the TUF coach. Sine Rampage has already beat Jardine (in a BAD performance) I’ll take Thiago vs Rashad on the undercard of Rampage / Lyoto

 

Joao: This one has fireworks written all over it. Both men are above average strikers who put on fights that are usually entertaining and fast-paced. Jardine, hailing from Greg Jackson’s camp, has been capable of the best (beat Chuck Lidell, Forrest Griffin) and of the worst (lost to Houston Alexander, Stephan Bonnar). Thiago Silva is still a young fighter at 26, used to train at Chute Boxe and is now a member of the American Top Team; he was on a 13-0 roll until Lyoto Machida derailed him. This fight, unlike the main event, has title implications at the LHW division, even more so if Thiago comes out on top. The difference-maker in this fight is that Thiago is a BJJ black belt, definitely more skilled on the ground than Jardine. In fact, when the stand-up isn’t going Silva’s way (like in the Houston Alexander fight) he often decides to take the fight to the ground, where he can pass the guard, control his opponent and land ground ‘n pound damage.

 

Jason: I think we are going to see a very different Silva than we saw againt Machida .  For one Jardine doesn't have the defense that Machida has.  Let's not forget that Silva was walking through everyone before he ran into Machida .  I do think Keith's style does cause problems for people, because nobody else had a stance like him, but I don't see that causing problems for Silva.  I think he is going to come out strong agaisnt Jardine and will try to finish hm off quickly.  Unfortunately for Keith, I think Silva is a better striker and will end this fight very quickly with a devastating KO.

 

WINNER:

 

David: Thiago DES
Joao: Thiago Silva by (T)KO , round 1 
Jason: Silva - KO Rd1

 

 

Heavyweight bout:  
Randy Couture vs.  Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

 

David: Could we have this one at 5 rounds? If we could I would take Nog, problem is Randy has seen it all, Nog has done it all. Problem is the breakdown:

On the Feet, Randy is better

In the Clinch, Randy is MUCH better

On top, Randy does more damage

On the Bottom, Nog can tap anyone not named Fedor

 

Neither man has much takedown defense vs a NORMAL fighter but in this matchup its almost sad defense - so if one wants to go down, there is no way in hades the other can stop it. I would put the over/under at sprawls at 1 and bet the house on the under.I’ll take Randy to outpoint Nog in the clinch and take one more step toward getting Brock II.

 

Joao: Randy Couture vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira – three or four years ago this would have been a dream fight between two legends of the sport, two great champions. Nowadays it seems more like a retirement fight, a “loser leaves town” kind of thing. Still, I am not complaining, as it is definitely better late than never. While I don’t see Heavyweight title implications written all over this, it certainly is an interesting fight. Both men are coming off losses and they are sure to turn in a better performance this time around. Couture has, as we all know, the wrestling, clinch and dirty boxing; Nogueira has stellar BJJ for MMA and a legendary chin (not so much against Mir, though). Nogueira is 33 and has taken a remarkable amount of damage throughout his career, while Couture is an eye-popping 46-years-old. The deciding factors in this fight are going to be cardio and the stand-up game; Nogueira has been working on his boxing with Anderson Silva at the Black House and both men may eventually decide to keep it standing. All in all, I do believe Nogueira is going to be the larger and stronger of the two and he will leave the Mir fight behind him. My only worry is that the fight may turn into an extremely boring affair, with both fighters cancelling each other out.

 

Jason: This is such a tough fight to call.  Which Nog will show up?  The slow and very old looking one who fought Mir, or was that just due to the infection?  Can the Nog the was almost unstoppable in Pride make a showing and surprise the world?  Can Randy at 46 fight a guy that is 33 and considered one of the best HW's around?  I do know one thing.  Randy always comes into fights with a great gameplan.  I think his plan in this fight is to keep the fight standing and outstrike Nog.  I wouldn't want to take Nog to the ground with his BJJ skills.  Mir wanted no part of the ground with Nog and he's a BJJ black belt.  I think Randy keeps the fight standing and wins a unanamous decision.

 

 

WINNER:

 

David: Randy 29-28,29-28,29-28
Joao: Minotauro Nogueira by decision
Jason: Randy - Decision

 

Submitted 8/29/2009

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