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UFC 101
Preview

I am David Snipes, and with me picking this weekends events is my Brazilian 1.0 partner Joao "RubberGuard" Pedro

Welterweight bout: 
Jesse Lennox vs. Danillo Villefort 

David: Villefort,(9-2,Debut in UFC) has fought as high as 185, and is kind of a scary guy- not for his opponent- for the UFC at large- he had a fight in the IFL, won- they folded, then for the WEC, won- and they dropped the 185 division, so unless he wants to join the ranks of Kimbo and Barnett, we should all hope he loses. 

Lennox (10-1,debut) is another Miletich product coming to the UFC (Number 876- collect them all, does this guy HAVE a student that has not fought in the UFC?) and is a virtual unknown, I have not found his WEC fight on my normal searches- but we can assume being a MFS guy- we can guess we know 85% of his skillset. 

Danillo is a BJJ and a godson of NOG - so we can guess this won't be a 15 minute standup war, and I'll take the Ju-Ju Black Belt over the wrestler under the big lights.

Joao: Lennox is a Miletich Fighting Systems product who is well-rounded and trying to make a name for himself in this UFC debut. Villefort, the son of a famous soccer player, brings a good mix of judo and BJJ to the octagon. Both men are largely untested in the big stage, even if both did win a WEC fight. I read some reports on Villefort's training at ATT and basically he is being groomed to become the next big thing to come out of that camp.

WINNER: 

David: Danno Submission R2
Joao: Villefort by submission, round 1

Lightweight bout: 
George Sotiropoulos vs. George Roop

David: Sotiropoulos (9-2,3-0 UFC) is a fast climbing fighter out of season 6- might actually be the top guy in that group- was in line for a Karo fight, and is another BJJ Black belt.

Roop (9-4,1-1) is another fighter out of TUF farm system, and might be heading to the WEC after this one- he has a VERY small frame and I don't know if his ground game is up for all the Ju-Ju guys that are FLOODING the lighter weights right now. 

Joao: Both men hail from TUF seasons, with Sotiropoulos being the most highly regarded between the two. He has fought better quality opponents and at bigger shows; he was also one of the favorites to win his season before being caught by a less-experienced fighter in Tommy Speer. Roop isn't the man initially slated to face Sotiropoulos (I am getting tired of writing this name already) and I really do not think Roop can hang around the UFC for long. At 32 this is make or brake for (again) Sotiropoulos. I don't see him losing this one.

WINNER: 

David: George Des (S, if you have to know) 
Joao: Sotiropoulos by decision

Welterweight bout: 
Matt Riddle vs. Dan Cramer

David: Cramer (1-0,1-0) is a fun fighter who has a bit of an ego- but he is 1-0, and 1-1 in 2 exhibitions in the season 7 TUF, plus a 3-0 amatuer record, he has a SOLID chin and a pretty good ground game, I personally think the better his camp is the better fighter he will be, and this is for a new contract, so he better be ready. 

Riddle (2-0,2-0) is a better fighter than he lets on- more a goof on the show, but does have a solid skillset. I don't think he is a threat to go to far, but could settle into a solid mid-carder

Joao: Two very different fighters. Sakara is a former pro boxer in Italy, trained MMA full-time in Brazil and now trains with the ATT guys. He likes to stand and trade and has improved his takedown defense; he usually has exciting fights. He is basically going to try to avoid the takedown and keep it standing. As for Leites, this is a must win scenario; more than that, this is a "must impress" fight, after his no-show in the title fight against Anderson Silva. Leites' striking is suspect but his BJJ is very good. How much has Sakara been improving on takedown defense and on getting back to his feet? He has the training partners for that, but some things do not come easy. Unless he catches Leites early on, he will eventually get taken down, softned and submitted.

WINNER: 

David: Cramer Des 
Joao: Matt Riddle by decision

Middleweight bout: 
Thales Leites vs. Alessio Sakara

David: Poor Leites (14-2,5-2) has to rebuild back to a title shot after a VERY disapointing fight vs Anderson, and Thales was given a gift win vs Nate Marquardt, so who knows how could he is? He's a smart fighter but no real threat on the feet, having no KO wins since 2005, Sakara (13-7-1,4-4-1) is a fighter that has been around a bit- but is a bit of a lower-level gatekeeper with a decent chin and good striking. I have to think that a Leites loss means he's gone and who knows how Sakara got to 10 fights in the UFC to start with? One thing to keep in mind is Leites asked for this fight after Sakara's scheduled opponent Rousimar Palhares, broke his leg.

Joao: Thales Leites vs Alessio Sakara - two very different fighters. Sakara is a former pro boxer in Italy, trained MMA full-time in Brazil and now trains with the ATT guys. He likes to stand and trade and has improved his takedown defense; he usually has exciting fights. He is basically going to try to avoid the takedown and keep it standing. As for Leites, this is a must win scenario; more than that, this is a "must impress" fight, after his no-show in the title fight against Anderson Silva. Leites' striking is suspect but his BJJ is very good. How much has Sakara been improving on takedown defense and on getting back to his feet? He has the training partners for that, but some things do not come easy. Unless he catches Leites early on, he will eventually get taken down, softned and submitted.

WINNER: 

David: Leites Sub 3

Joao: Thales Leites by submission, round 2

Welterweight bout: 
Tamdan McCrory vs. John Howard

David: Tamdan (11-2,3-2) is ground guy who is working towards getting a second contract and Howard (11-4,1-0) is a fighter who is looking to stay, McCrory is going to want to stay on the mat as Howard has a pretty good standup game- not much in the way of KO power judging by the Chris Wilson fight- but does keep the pressure on. 

Joao: two up and comers with Howard the fighter looking for submissions and McCrory the most well-rounded of the two. This is, in my opinion, the least interesting fight on this card. They can prove me wrong by putting an exciting fight.

WINNER: 

David: Howard by Des
Joao: McCrory by (T)KO in round 1

Lightweight bout: 
Shane Nelson vs. Aaron Riley

David: Nelson (12-3,2-0) and Riley (27-11-1,1-3) have fought at UFC 96- and Nelson got an early stoppage- and in the UFC- that means rematch, so I bet Riley is happy about that as this is his 3rd tour in the UFC- the other 2 being one-and-done losses to Robbie Lawler and Spencer Fisher, not bad losses there. I have to think Riley has to win to extend his 3rd tour past this weekend and Nelson needs to win to stop being Kevin Burns. Riley is a vetern- but he's lost a LOT- I'll take Nelson to legitimize the previous win.

Joao: Riley is well-known and respected within the MMA community. He is one of those good fighters (another example would be Tiki) who has been in the UFC multiple times but just wasn't able to find his stride in there. Bear in mind that his UFC debut was actually in 2002. He has fought in the UFC, on 3 different stints, PRIDE, IFL, Hook'n Shoot, along with other organizations. He has legitimate skills, especially on the ground. For those who might say "didn't this happen already?", they are correct. These two met at UFC 96 and the win was awarded to Nelson on a controversial stoppage early into the fight. That having been said, I don't think Riley will let this one escape.

WINNER:

David: Nelson KO R2
Joao: Aaron Riley by decision

MAIN CARD
Lightweight bout: Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellegrino

David: Neer (25-7-1,4-4) is a hard guy to figure out, he has some solid wins, but some odd losses. Neer is also in his 3rd tour of the UFC and is 2-1 in this stint. I like Neer, but I'll call it right now, he loses his next fight. Pellegrino (13-4,5-3) is a pretty good wrestler and a BJJ guy while Neer will roll with any fight you want- My guess would be on the ground here. I'll take Neer here, but remember what I said. 

Joao: What happens when Batman visits the Dentist? Ok, this was weak, I'll admit. I have to confess that, even though Josh Neer is praised in the MMA circles for his fighting skills, he does not impress me. As for Batman he's one of those "I am going for it" types of fighters, with good BJJ skills on the ground and a will to please the audience. I can't put my finger on it, but I think this will be the fight in which Neer finally impresses me, nullifying Batman with his good wrestling and positioning.

WINNER: 

David: Neer by decision 
Joao: Josh Neer by decision

Middleweight bout: 
Kendall Grove vs. Ricardo Almeida

David: As Mac Danzig's biggest fan, Grove (10-5,5-2) has revived his career with 2 wins- and while not even close to a title shot- at least he ahs a good chance of not being the first TUF winner to be sent home. Almeida (10-3,3-3) in his second UFC tour (a lot of repeats on this card) is a ground guy- and will have to get past Grove's improving sprawl- Grove has a decent striking game and with his reach, he could make this a VERY long night for Ricardo- I think Grove is going to try to poke Almeida's chin and keep a distance from him, and if Ricardo throws more than 20 strikes- I'd be stunned. Ricardo is going to try and find that long arm or leg- and snap it off. 

Joao: Grove, the tallest fighter in the Middleweight division, was almost out of the UFC with back-to-back losses to Patrick Coté and Jorge Rivera. He is now on a 2-fight winning streak to keep his UFC membership alive. But what we have learned is that he can get caught fairly easy on his feet. As for "Cachorrão" (Big Dog) Almeida, he is a legitimate and highly regarded BJJ black belt under Renzo Gracie. He had a UFC run some years ago, which wasn't very impressive, but this second attempt is proving to be better. No doubts here: Grove will use his reach and takedown defense to keep it standing and Almeida won't even test Grove's chin, he wants it on the ground. Grove's height also makes for a somewhat suspect takedown defense and Almeida should eventually get it. On the ground the difference is huge; ironically, Grove's lengthy arms, neck and legs are tasty targets for a BJJ expert.

WINNER: 

David: Ricardo by Submission R2 
Joao: Ricardo Almeida by submission, round 1

Welterweight bout: 
Amir Sadollah vs. Johny Hendricks

David: Amir (1-0,1-0) is an unknown- he was new at the house, and since he has had a year to hang out and watch TV and train at a new weight- we have no clue what he is going to be like in the cage. Hendricks (5-0,Debut) is a DOMINANT wrestler and could be considered a punishment for Amir, as he is VERY tough and VERY scary. Problem is, Amir is at a new weight- and has done nothing but train at the UFC gym. So who knows how he is going to be? 

Joao: Finally we get to see Amir in the octagon. Finally as the last team we have seen him he was winning TUF 7, more than a year ago. It was amazing to see his run in that show: he was basically losing every fight until the end, and then he was able to catch his opponents in a submission. The Finale fight was easier. Sadollah has a solid muay thai background but what really carried him on the show (besides the entertaining character) was a combination of heart, chin and slick submissions. After a string of injuries and bad luck we finally get to see him fight. What has he been doing for the last 13 months? No idea. But he is hailing from XTreme Couture. Hendricks is basically being fed to Sadollah. Don't take me wrong, I have seen his WEC fights and he is a decent fighter. But I really see Sadollah impressing us one more time.

WINNER:

David: Sorry Amir- Hendricks by Des

Joao: Amir Sadollah by submission, round 2

Light Heavyweight bout: 
Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin

David: I'm picking the upset. Forrest is a BIG 205er- and should come into the ring close to 220-230 pounds, Anderson will come in under 210, his walking around weight, Forrest normally has an EXCELLENT gameplan and has only been blown off his feet once, by Jardine- you go back to that Rashad fight and Forrest was EASILY winning that fight- right up until the end. Forrest has a SOLID chin and clinch game. 

Anderson's best shot is to get in close and trade with him and stay off the ground- Forrest has the takedown to drag Anderson down and keep him down- and Anderson has been submitted before. 

The Reach will be about the same and Anderson will be the more precise striker- but Forrest will be the stronger of the 2. 

Anderson has had 2 VERY lackluster fights and has not been pushed since the Hendo fight- Forrest will apply the pressure and if Anderson cannot make him take a step back on the feet, Forrest will wear on him for the full 15 rounds. 


Joao: after two lackluster title defenses at Middleweight, the Spider again moves up in weight, this time to face Forrest Griffin, who is coming off an unsuccessful title defense against Rashad Evans. This was a smart move by Joe Silva. Forrest brings it and "counter-punching" isn't a part of his dictionary. He'll be sure to press the action. If that is the case, his wild striking style, combined with the possible "I am going to start engaging you" attitude, will only prove fertile for Silva's devastating Muay Thai. I don't think this one will even hit the ground. On the feet I have to give the edge to Anderson. His striking is a notch above Griffin's and even coming up in weight doesn't bring a reach disadvantage for the Brazilian venomous Spider. Forrest has a puncher's chance... and it could happen. But Anderson Silva hasn't made mistakes in the UFC and this is the fight in which he makes peace with the fans.

WINNER: 

David: Forrest 29-28 Split win.
Joao: Anderson Silva by (T)KO, round 2

Lightweight Championship bout: 

B.J. Penn (c) vs. Kenny Florian

David: I want Ken-Flo to win, I mean really REALLY want Kenny to win- Just this week BJ claimed GSP was Roiding.. Problem is- I don;t see how, BJ might be better in  Standup- I know he is better on the ground, and he has a better chin. Ken-Flo has 2 advantages- Cardio and Clinch- but his main advantage are those razor blades he calls elbows- his best bet it to open BJ up and get a doctor to stop the fight- or make him and BJ both so bloddy that BJ can;t get a grip on him (expect him to claim Ken-Flo's blood is 80% Starbury Vaseline). My Main problem- BJ is not a bleeder- and the cutmen do an EXCELLENT job-So Kenny is going to HAVE to extend this fight and tire BJ out- then bust him up- or make him quit on his stool. Anyone see this happening? Me Neither- but I want it too. BJ's gameplan? Be BJ Penn- win, plug website, go home and whine about GSP again. 

Joao: I expect Silva and Griffin to have fireworks and BJ vs Florian to be a somewhat more tactical fight. Both are BJJ black belts but make no mistake about it: on the ground there's a considerable advantage for BJ Penn, in terms of straight grappling. Kenny should try to keep this standing and explore his ever-improving Muay Thai skills. BJ has underrated boxing but I don't think he should engage in that type of fight with Ken-Flo; he should use strikes to set up the takedown and work from there. Florian will have to go in there with the same tactical mindset he used against Roger Huerta; after all, this may be his 2nd and last ever title shot in the UFC if he loses. If BJ comes in motivated and in shape, and while I am not counting Ken-Flo out, he should have a distinct overall advantage in terms of experience and talent over Kenny Florian. I see BJ Penn winning this fight and setting up a highly anticipated title defense against a tougher test in Diego Sanchez.

WINNER: 

David: Penn Sub 4 (Dammit)

Joao: BJ Penn by (T)KO, round 2

Submitted 8/7/2009

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