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Can Mariano Rivera Win the Cy Young?

by Joe Cantiello

Early handicapping for the American League Cy Young (CY) award possibilities has one New York writer pushing the nomination and accomplishments of one reliever par excellence, Mo Rivera. John Harper (New York Daily News) admits that though Rivera is having a very good season, he might not have the statistics and the numbers that stand out and grab the attention of the writers who vote for the award. And unless Rivera gets a lot of save opportunities in September, and converts essentially them all, his name may wind up being left out of the CY equation completely. In fact Harper says that unless Rivera can extend his present save streak without blowing a save, from thirty four (as of 9/3) to at least forty plus, he will he probably elicit mostly third and fourth place votes for the award rather than votes of the first and second place variety. Recognition...but no blue ribbon. Harper brings up Rivera’s HOF caliber career and the fact that although history is usually not relevant in garnering favor for a player receiving a yearly award, it can sometimes play upon the thinking of a voter when the field of candidates to win the award is only fair to middling. In fact sort of like this year’s group of AL starters who would be considered CY possibilities?  

No one starter is having a breakout season thus far, as the 2009 season begins to wind down. Yes, there are some potential twenty game win possibilities, but the chances are the AL may not have a twenty game winner this year at all. C.C. Sabbathia presently, with his win on Tuesday (9/2) now has 16 victories and has a possible five starts left in 2009 and may have the best chance to achieve the twenty win plateau. Plus his track record says that you shouldn’t ever count C.C. out late in the year as that is when he seems to pitch his best. But even if he does achieve twenty wins, his record would still not be that outstanding. Notable, yes, but not outstanding. Presently, he is averaging about six strikeouts a game, and, is last among the other contenders in that category. And while I am not that big of a proponent of total strikeouts as an indicator of a pitcher’s greatness usually the voters for the CY award tend to use that stat as a measuring stick of a pitchers ability to dominate. (Maybe in another column someday but not today I will elaborate on my stance on the strikeout stat as a measuring stick of greatness.) Plus, C.C.’s ERA (3.56) is only presently fifth best among the six starters who are probably going to garner the most attention from the voters. Only Josh Beckett’s ERA (3.80) is higher. And Beckett lately seems to be shooting himself in the foot as his pitching has been a little more like A. J. Burnett’s, (what is wrong with AJ these days, anyway?), than Cy Young’s lately. The statistic that CC has that is impressive is his strikeout/walk (K/BB) ratio, (which is, in my opinion, a much better indicator of dominance than total strikeouts), which is right now at a very good 3.3:1. (Any thing over 2:1 is considered good.) And, one statistic that CC is strong is total innings pitched. He is a cinch to pitch more than 200 innings for the season (199.1 as of 9/3) which is a secondary stat the voters tend to look at when the primary stats such as wins and ERA tend to equal out among certain candidates. But then every one of the candidates among the starters will probably exceed 200 IP. CCs WHIP is a very good 1.13, third best among the six starters.

Returning to Beckett for a moment, my personal opinion is that unless he can get hot and win twenty games I put his chances at winning the award at little to almost none. He will get votes for the CY but with his ERA near four and his strikeout totals averaging only slightly better than CCs; his IP being the lowest among the starters and his propensity to give up the long ball (his nine inning average is 1.2) and the fact he probably won’t win twenty games, I just don’t give Beckett my vote unless he starters pitching lights out and basically leads Boston into the playoffs. Frankly, I think Beckett for the most part has pitched his best already this season and while he might not scratch out the rest of the season, I don’t see him running the table either, which he pretty much needs to do to win the CY this year. In fact unless he accomplishes that feat his chances with his record at 14-5 to win twenty with about six starts left is pretty much impossible.

What about the other contenders among the starters?

In no particular order there is Justin Verlander (Tigers) with a 16-7 record (tied with Sabbathia for most wins) and a decent ERA at 3.28, WHIP at 1.15, a league leading 222 strikeouts a very good K/W at 4.1:1; Felix Hernandez (Mariners) has a 14-5 record with a sub three era (2.65), WHIP at 1.16,179 strikeouts and  K/BB at 3.2:1; Roy Halladay, (Jays) with a 14-8 record, also with a sub three ERA at 2.98, WHIP at 1.11 (second best among the starters),165 strikeouts and a K/BB at an excellent league leading 6.2/1 and Zach Greinke (Royals) with a 13-8 record and very nice league leading 2.32 ERA, WHIP at an excellent league leading 1.07, 202 strikeouts and an excellent K/BB at 5:1.

Let’s cut the chaff from the wheat right now. Halladay has shot his CY chances in the foot with his sorry record in August until his recent one hitter against the Yankees that helped to steady and improve his stats immensely. He has lost more than he has won lately and is playing with a team with no playoff hopes after a hot early run by both the pitcher and his team. His chance to win twenty is probably fergeddaboudit! While his ERA is at that  nice 2.98 and if he gets hot like he is able to do he could get that ERA even lower but even if everything broke just right for him the best record he could probably achieve would be about 18-8, 2.90 ERA and maybe 195 strikeouts. A nice record but again this is with everything breaking his way and him winning out for the season, and frankly, with him playing in Toronto , I just don’t see that happening. One thing that does stand out in his stats is he is tied for most complete games with six and is tied for second in shutouts pitched with two. Still not enough to put him over the top in most voters minds, however.

That now leaves Verlander, Hernandez and Greinke as major contenders for the CY in 2009.

Greinke is not pitching as dominantly as he did when the season was in its early stages. At that time, Greinke was on a pace to pitch about high double figure complete games; win thirty and just dominate the league. Now he has come back down to earth and unfortunately, as was pointed out, plays for the Royals. However if the twenty win circle remains unfulfilled this year, and if he can get on a steak and dominate the way he has at various times throughout this year then he has some very good chance of picking up votes. His league leading 2.32 ERA is very good especially in the AL . His strikeout totals (202) and K/W ratio (5:1) are both excellent. He leads the league in shutouts pitched with three and is tied with Halladay in complete games with six and gives up the least amount of long balls in the AL with only eleven. His WHIP is a nice league leading 1.07 And if he can close out the year with another four wins then his record could be 17-8 not stellar but with any other team he might  very well have already won twenty games and be a shoo in for the CY. As it is with his stats where they are he is a strong CY candidate and if he can close out the year with three or four wins and get his numbers down even lower he will  be a very strong candidate. He could win the CY with the least amount of wins for a starting pitcher ever, in fact.

Verlander is frankly a bit of a surprise to me this year, but like CC, the pitcher he is tied with for the most wins (16) presently, if he can win out for the year he could sneak in as a twenty game winner and is leading the AL with in total strikeouts and has a nice ERA that could drop closer to the 3.00 threshold, and maybe even under 3.00, with some low earned run games and that would begin to open some voter’s eyes. His WHIP, as are all these pitcher’s WHIPs, is at a very nice 1.15, his IP are only two behind C.C. (197) for the league lead and his K/BB is at a nice 4.1:1. Verlander is a very strong candidate right now for the CY.  

Hernandez has the same exact problem that Greinke has, he plays for a losing team and presently has 14 wins but does have a sub three ERA (2.65), a decent amount of strikeouts (179) and his K/BB is at a good 3.2:1. But like Greinke, unless he can overcome his team’s inability to win (produce runs) and put in a nice streak of pitching and close out the year strong he probably won’t get a lot of first place voting attention. At least not the amount of attention Greinke is going to get because Hernandez’s numbers while very good, just are not as gaudy as Grienke’s are. His recent line in a win over the Angels didn’t do his chances any harm: eight innings of four hit shutout ball with six Ks, and he lowered his ERA to that nice 2.65. He has an outside chance with probably only five starts left to win twenty games but I really place him in the “fergeddaboudit” category. His chances to win the CY right should probably behind Verlander, Greinke and Sabbathia. However as mentioned he plays with a non-contender in Seattle and unless he breaks the twenty game win mark I don’t see him gathering enough momentum to overtake a pitcher on a playoff bound team for the CY.

So what’s it all about, Alfie? The story is that the field has just been narrowed down to starters Justin Verlander and Zach Greinke with C. C. Sabbathia as a dark horse possibility.  

Now, in comes Mo Rivera into the equation. Arguably Rivera had a more dominant season last year than any other reliever (see chart) but because he is Mo and his stellar numbers have maybe become old hat and because a certain pitcher with the Angels, who now resides in Queens, NYC, NY at Citifield, was setting a saves record for one season Mo was not as noticeable as he would have been. But, this year Mo’s record in some respects has been just as stellar as last years and maybe ranks as one of his three or four best of his stellar and bodacious career.

He has thirty-four straight saves without a blown save since blowing and losing a game to a Jason Bay HR and Boston early on. In fact Mariano was pitching so un-Mariano-like the usual early words of his demise were spewing from some mouths that said Mo had lost it and at 39 no longer was an effective closer. Two things need to be noticed however: (1) Mariano was still recovering from an off-season shoulder surgery and as he said “... my shoulder needed time to get stronger.” And (2) Mo has had these slow starts in recent years and somehow like the little pink battery bunny he keeps going and going and going....  

Right now, his record stands at 1-2; he has a 1.78 ERA and 38 saves. His strikeout to walk ratio is an excellent 6.7:1 and his WHIP is an excellent 0.89. He can end the season with potentially, if he figures in at least half of the Yankees remaining games, 48 to 52 saves (which would be his second most saves ever) and maybe maintain a steak of over forty-four saves in a row without a blown save. His ERA is a very good 1.78. In Harper’s view (and mine), “if none of the top starters has a hot month” Rivera  could sneak off with a Cy Young  trophy which would be his only Cy Young award in his career. And that would be the cherry on the top of a HOF career.

So while career numbers should never be considered for individual awards it is quite possible that the sentiment for one of the really nice guys in the game could sway some CY thinking. Already Mo has one Boston writer and voter thinking of Mo as a candidate for the CY. Tony Massarotti, Boston Globe, says “Absolutely” but that it would take extraordinary circumstances for him to vote a first place CY vote for a stopper.

Buck Martinez, Orioles broadcaster, who doesn’t have a vote, but does express the sentiment felt around many of the voters that “Mariano is a special guy (both professionally and personally). It’d be nice to see him get [the Cy Young Award].”

Mariano says, “If it happens, it happens.... But to me it’s about winning championships.... That’s what I want to be remembered for.”

Personally, I hope he pitchers in an extraordinary manner as the season nears to a close to sway some voters who may be on the fence about voting for a closer. And while I wish no ill on any of the other candidates it would not hurt if they flub a win opportunity here and there and opened the door a little wider for probably the best reliever to have ever played the game (well since the role of stopper was redefined from the days of Eckersley and the Goose) so that he can win his well deserved Cy Young Award.    

  Submitted 09/11/09

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