Guess Who?

by Tim Anderson 
 

“When you tell me something I didn’t already know, I’ll be surprised,” Canseco told ESPN. “And I’ll tell you this, Major League Baseball is going to have a big, big problem on their hands when they find out they have a Hall of Famer who’s used.”

After the groundbreaking news came through in ripples through the baseball and sporting world, surprising many and leaving others in disbelieve, Jose Canseco didn’t even have to think twice about it. The news of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez testing positive in 2003 of some sort of substance believed to enhance the performance of an athlete did nothing but bolster the case and ego of Canseco. And that ego sure needed the monthly injection for it had been since June that Jose had last been proven correct with the busting of long-time Cub’s slugger Sammy Sosa.

Players such as Rafael Palmeiro, Miguel Tejada, and Jason Giambi as well as the previously mentioned names of Sammy Sosa, Manny Ramirez, and David Ortiz have been predictions from the mouth and out of the pen of Jose Canseco.

Call him baseball’s bad boy or the man who ruined the sport. However, you must also recognize the fact that he has been right and truthful on oh-so-many cases. By now claiming there is a Hall of Famer that has used, Canseco has created a guessing game on the national scale. Let the over-sized game of “Guess Who?” begin.

Obviously, the names of players such as Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Cy Young, and others playing in the late 1800s, early 1900s, and into the 1960s can just about be eliminated from this conversation. But there is a small chance that someone from decades long gone also used steroids. In a 1991 book by Bruce Nash, Allan Zulo, and Bob Smith titled The Baseball Hall of Shame’s Warped Record Book, the use of performance enhancers in the form of testosterone was mention as early as the 1920s involving who many regard as the best pure power hitter in baseball’s history: 

The Bambino fell ill one year attempting to inject himself with extract from a sheep’s testes. This effort by more than a few athletes of his era to seek the healing and strengthening properties of testosterone prefigured the craze for steroids. When Ruth fell ill from his attempted enhancement, the media was told that Ruth merely had ‘a bellyache.’ 

The direct quote from a book nearly two decades old can raise some questions about the era of the past. However, the players from Ruth’s era, before, and beyond should not be investigated in this scandal. You must only look at the accuser to see why.

All of the players implicated by Jose Canseco in his books Juiced and Vindicated or any other testimony or comment played the game during Canseco’s era. All of the evidence presented by Canseco against players like McGwire, Ivan Rodriguez, or Giambi has been concrete. Jose has either said he injected the players, told the players how to use or how to acquire the drugs, or played with the athletes and saw them inject.

For Canseco to accuse players who were active in decades where he was a child, teenager, not born,    or not even thought of would be a large blunder on his part. Doing so would tear down all credibility that Canseco had on the issue of steroids. After all, this credibility is the only connection he still has to baseball and the only reason we are still talking about him.

Sure, Canseco could have done extensive research, turning over every possibly rock and gathering together all the evidence to bust a player from the 1920s through the 1960s. Even with how possible it can be, it’s very unlikely. Canseco isn’t the only one able to do research and surely isn’t the most qualified either.

Therefore, the so-called Steroid Era in baseball can be unofficially pinpointed as starting in 1988 for that is when the Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1988 came into play. Currently in the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame, there are 21 players who played at least one year during the alleged Steroid Era beginning in 1988. 

A few of the players in the Hall playing during the Steroid Era only played one or two seasons during the tainted time.

Mike Schmidt, Don Sutton, Bruce Sutter, and Jim Rice can all have their little player card flipped down in this “Guess Who?” game leaving only 17 other suspects.  

A lot more players of the Hall either did not play their prime in the Steroid Era nor did they play in the prime of the Steroid Era itself.

Gary Carter, George Brett, Nolan Ryan, Robin Yount, Carlton Fisk, Goose Gossage, Kirby Puckett Eddie Murray, Dennis Eckerlsey, Ryne Sandberg, and Dave Winfield can also be counted out of this game of looking for a culprit. That leaves only six other suspects.  

For the mostly the rest of the players remaining, their stats just don’t warrant suspicion for steroid use.

Ozzie Smith, Paul Molitor, Wade Boggs, and Tony Gwynn fall into this category as, collectively between the four players, from 1988 on, they only hit 317 home runs in 5891 games. 139 of those home runs came from the bat of Paul Molitor in which from 1988 to 1999 he hit a steady amount of home runs, with the highest season total being 22.  

By striking off these players, only two players remain on the list -- Cal Ripken, Jr. and Rickey Henderson.

If the stats were the only thing to look at find the guilty between the two, Cal Ripken would be the one who would draw the short end of the stick. With 431 home runs on Cal Ripken’s side and a .447 career slugging percentage, Cal is one of the best slugging shortstops of all time. For his career, he averaged 23 home runs per 162 games and even hit 34 in 1991.

Rickey Henderson, by no means, was known for his slugging. With only 297 home runs in 25 seasons, a .419 slugging percentage, and an average of 16 long balls per 162 games, Rickey had way less pop than Cal.

If you dig deeper into Cal Ripken’s numbers in correlation with the Steroid Era, the thought might change a little. From 1981 to 1987, Cal Ripken played 992 games, hit 160 home runs, 211 doubles, and slugged .475. His season average saw him hitting 22 home runs and 30 doubles. This season average counts his 1981 “season” as well in which he played 23 games, had 39 at bats, and hit 0 home runs and 0 doubles. Therefore, his season average in that time span is even lower than it should be.

Take out his 1981 season from the equation and just look at 1982 to 1987, his numbers jump. He goes from averaging 22 home runs to averaging 26 and from 30 doubles to 35 doubles. Before the Steroid Era in question officially began, Cal was a somewhat established power hitter.

Then when the era began in 1988, Cal’s numbers aren’t as powerful. From 1988 to 1993, his first six season in this era of widespread performance enhancement, Cal only averaged 22 home runs per season and 30 doubles. Compare that to his six seasons before that and his power numbers dropped despite hitting 34 bombs in 1991. His slugging percentage went from around .470 all the way down to .434.

For his entire career in the Steroid Era (1988-2001), he only averaged 19 home runs per season, 28 doubles, and a .434 slugging percentage. Ripken was, then, a better hitter even before the Steroid Era began.

And while the numbers are against Cal in a quick glance, character is definitely on his side. The Oriole Way is what Cal preached, continues to preach, lived by, and continues to live by.  “Perfect practice makes perfect,” was how the Oriole Way was described by Cal’s father and coach, Cal Ripken, Sr. The Oriole Way was built with the belief that hard work, professionalism, and a strong understanding of fundamentals were what made a great pro baseball player. Hard work and professionalism are both antonyms for what performance-enhancing drugs stand for. Drugs undermine hard work, skip straight to instant gratification, and definitively kill the entire idea of professionalism.

Ripken currently sits as the United States’ Special Sports Envoy, a position highly thought of. He still teaches the Oriole Way to thousands of kids each year in his camps in Aberdeen and also on his trips overseas. When Alex Rodriguez was busted this passed offseason for using by Selena Roberts, Cal Ripken spoke out: 

“I really want to know why. I’m going to make it my business to find out. The steroid era is putting a dark cloud over baseball, and that dark cloud is hanging and hanging.” 

Back in December of 2006, Cal Ripken commented on the steroid era itself: 

“I think we all were very disappointed that steroids came flying out into the game of baseball; the integrity of the game was in question,” 

Cal Ripken, like all of us, was disappointed that the game he loved was being compromised by drugs. Cmpare all that to the character of Rickey Henderson and you see almost the exact opposite. Yes, Rickey loved the game and was overall a good guy; but, from proclaiming himself the greatest or talking in the third person, you see an attitude that differs from Cal. That attitude can lead to much more. 

By slamming shut the Cal Ripken “Guess Who?” card, only one card remains standing. That card shows the face of Rickey Henderson, and all the signs sure do point towards him.

Rickey played 16 of his 25 seasons in the Steroid Era with his prime hitting seasons starting around 1990 and carrying on throughout the decade. Rickey’s prime seasons were also spent around the clubhouse in Oakland with Jason Giambi, Mark McGwire, and, most importantly, Jose Canseco. Henderson played 1989-1992 with Jose Canseco.

The 1990 season is the best one to look at for evidence against Rickey Henderson. Rickey’s slugging percentage, home run total, batting average, OPS, doubles number, and OPS+ were all the highest in his career. Rickey slugged .577 in 1990, which is the highest in his career by .61. His career slugging percentage stands .158 below his 1990 total. His OPS was high in that season as well. The stat of OPS adds together slugging percentage and on base percentage. Anyone can tell you that Rickey Henderson was one of the best of all time in getting on base. Rickey led the league in walks four times in his career while rarely being intentionally walked. In 1990, Henderson walked only 97 times. That 97-walk season is ranked tenth-highest in his career, tied with another season where he played 16 less games. Despite all those huge walk seasons, Rickey never led the league in OBP or OPS. That all changed in 1990 when he lead the league in both.  His OBP was at .439, the highest in the league and in his career. His OPS was at 1.016, also the highest in his career and in the league. Henderson’s OPS had never been over 1.000 before and his career OPS only sits at .820. And to say the numbers are as a result of his first season in Oakland, that he benefited in some way from the stadium isn’t true. His OPS+ (which takes into account the stadium) also led the league.

Henderson hit 28 home runs in 1990, collected 33 doubles, and batted .325 in 136 games. Henderson’s 162-game average for his career is 16 home runs, 27 doubles, and a .279 average. It could be said that Henderson just had a good, productive year. But the timing of the good year and the years to come could also discredit that.

From 1990-1992, Henderson’s slugging was at .489 with 61 home runs, 68 doubles, and a .293 average. That was arguably his best three consecutive seasons. It just may be a huge coincidence that his numbers jumped in the seasons that he played with infamous juicer Jose Canseco. It could also be a coincidence that 1990 was the year Henderson’s numbers jumped, his first full year with Canseco, and the season after his first full off-season with Jose. Who is to say what is or is not coincidence? I am certainly not qualified to speak on the subject.

So let’s think of this on a large scale. A common question when reading was probably, “Why didn’t Canseco bust Henderson with all the other players?” Canseco is by no means a stupid man. He knows how to play the media and the game of life. If the names of Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson, and Jason Giambi were presented to you and you were told to say which one was not using, who would you choose? The overwhelming majority of the public would say Henderson. Correct?

All three of those players are Hall of Fame caliber without the evidence of steroids. Think about if one of the many players busted for steroids were in the Hall before the news broke. What would Major League Baseball do? Would they keep the player in, allowing for more players of the same type to be allowed into the Hall of Fame? Would one user in the Hall open doors for all the others? Or would the MLB stand strong on their policies and boot the said player out for using?

It would be nothing but a big test. Jose Canseco knows this. And now that we’re left playing “Guess Who?”, only time will prove if this is all coincidence and conspiracy on my part or if this is theorem is fabricated from fact.